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ATLANTA, Aug. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Ventyx(R), the world's largest private
software and services provider to the energy and utility industry, today
released Electric Power Horizons, a scenario-based analysis of plausible
energy futures to the year 2032. The detailed study investigates renewable
generation, third-generation nuclear energy, natural gas supply and greenhouse
gas (GHG) regulations and analyzes their predicted effects on America's future
energy security.
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The scenarios outlined in the study address many of the primary concerns
identified by energy and utility industry executives in a recent Ventyx
workshop-including uncertainty surrounding GHG legislation and its effect on
prices, the impacts of economics and energy efficiency initiatives on demand,
the potential for increasing renewable resources and future constraints on
resource supply.
Among the study's comprehensive and detailed findings are the following:
-- Moderate CO2 taxes will not curb GHG emissions. A moderate CO2 federal
tax (less than $25 per ton by 2032 in 2008 dollars) on all tons of power
sector CO2 emissions would collect nearly $1.9 trillion in tax revenue over
the study period and raise customer bills 13 percent by 2032. However, by 2032
CO2 emissions would still increase nearly 60 percent, and gas usage would more
than double. This could significantly increase U.S. dependence on imported
liquefied natural gas (LNG).
-- CO2 reduction requires increased use of nuclear and renewables and
decreased use of coal. Projecting a path to reach a stringent 70-percent CO2
reduction from 2005 levels by 2050 would require increasing U.S. nuclear
capacity by more than 60 percent, call for the retirement of more than 170 GW
of coal and necessitate the addition of more than 45 GW of solar resources by
2032. This scenario also assumes a long economic slowdown followed by a slow
recovery which aids in limiting CO2 emissions.
-- GHG regulations may kill coal. Participation in G8+5 GHG emissions
limits requires the closure of nearly one-fourth of U.S. coal plants by 2015
with the remaining fleet operating at a much lower output level. The U.S. may
be the Saudi Arabia of coal, but greenhouse gas regulations may negate coal as
a viable fuel source.
-- Renewable energy has an uncertain future. Geothermal, wind and solar
are strong candidates for the future; however, questions remain as to whether
renewable energy will fulfill its potential and the transmission
infrastructure investment will nearly triple current levels to move wind to
load centers. Aligning our political and economic objectives with our energy
reality is a key to making renewable energy sustainable.
For more information on the Electric Power Horizons study, contact Ventyx
at +1-800-868-0497 or visit our Website:
http://www1.ventyx.com/advisory/strategy-advisor.asp . Ventyx will be hosting
a Webcast on September 25, 2008, at 1 p.m. (Eastern) to discuss the results of
the study and to gather input on future Electric Power Horizons reports.
Visit the following Website to register for this informative Webcast:
http://tinyurl.com/5d9kqd .
About Electric Power Horizons
Ventyx's Electric Power Horizons' annual Scenario Planning Retainer
Service offers energy sector participants a rigorous framework to extend
thinking beyond current issues and organization biases to identify potential
future market dislocations and strategic blind spots. It is a perfect
supplement to the North American Power and Gas Advisory Service, Ventyx's
semiannual, 25-year power and fuel price forecast and market outlook.
"Electric Power Horizons takes scenario planning to the next level with
actionable insights, leading to better strategic assessment by quantifying the
impacts and risks of energy policies across alternative plausible business
environments," said Senior Vice President of Ventyx Energy Advisors Doug
Buresh. "Ventyx, with input from utility, natural gas, coal, academic,
financial and rating agency clients, has developed four powerful and equally
plausible scenarios and captured them in Electric Power Horizons."
The scenarios include the following:
-- Global Turmoil -- Disruptions in gas supply lead to global stagnation
and a U.S. recession, which is followed by sustained low economic growth where
energy independence away from Middle East oil and LNG imports are critical.
-- Technology Evolution-Undeniable evidence of global warming leads to
regulation to reduce CO2 and a societal shift to greater energy conservation
and "zero emission" supply-side technologies.
-- Global Economy -- The shift of industrial U.S. load to the service
industries and a policy of global consolidation drive the U.S. to forge an
alliance with the G8+5 to stabilize global economy inflationary pressures and
wealth disparity.
-- Return to Reliability -- Growing concern of electricity reliability due
to brownouts and increased outages drives a lack in consumer confidence. The
Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) recognizes the shortfall of the aging
transmission infrastructure and leads to further consolidation of planning
areas, as well as a buildup of transmission infrastructure and reserve
standards.
Buresh added, "Electric Power Horizons takes a fundamental market view
that incorporates the physical characteristics and market volatility as it
affects the operation of power plants. By offering multiple independent views
of the future, scenarios are essential to stretch our strategic thinking and
challenge conventional wisdom."
About Ventyx
Ventyx is a leading business solutions provider, delivering asset
management, mobile workforce management, customer care, energy trading and
risk management, energy operations, and energy analytics solutions to more
than 900 energy, utility and communications customers, as well as to asset-
intensive customers in selected commercial markets. With approximately 1,200
employees in more than 20 locations worldwide, Ventyx delivers best-of-breed
business solutions that maximize operational and financial performance, backed
by the industry's deepest available industry-specific domain expertise. For
more information, visit our Website at www.ventyx.com .
Ventyx is a registered trademark of Ventyx Inc. Other company and product
names may be trademarks of the respective companies with which they are
associated.
SOURCE Ventyx
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